Think Like an Idiot: Denial, Wishful Thinking, and Bluffing

This is not a political blog. But I’m in the middle of doing a series on illogical thinking in product management, and Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak has decided to demonstrate very publicly the illogical thinking that often goes on in private within companies. Over the weekend, he had fighter jets repeatedly buzz the protesters in Tahrir Square at a low altitude. He showcased denial, wishful thinking, and bluffing.

Mubarak is clearly in denial about the strength of the protesters’ commitment to political change. It was wishful thinking to believe that buzzing them with a fighter jet would scare them off. (Wishful thinking is such a frequent response to denial that it’s often hard to distinguish the two.) And it was bluffing to imply that the air force might actually use jet fighters to start strafing or bombing the protesters in the heart of the Egyptian capital. I hope, pray, and believe that the Egyptian military will not massacre peaceful political protesters even if he orders them to do so. I can imagine soldiers possibly opening fire on individuals in self defense if soldiers’ lives are threatened, to protect government buildings from being stormed, or to stop looters or criminals. But so long as the protesters are peacefully demonstrating without attacking soldiers, destroying property, or committing crimes, I think the soldiers will not open fire. I think it’s even less credible to suggest that the air force would open fire on protesters in the square when army units are mixed in among them. Air force pilots are a highly trained elite, many if not all of whom have had professional military training in the United States, and they will hopefully refuse to follow such orders if they are given.

My highly placed sources in Mubarak’s inner circle indicate that his decision making process went like this:

Interior Minister: Mr. President, the protesters are still in Tahrir Square.

Hosni Mubarak: (thinks to himself) Hmm … I have a problem: protesters who won’t leave Tahrir Square. And I have an asset: fighter jets. Let’s use the asset to solve the problem! “Tell the air force to have fighter jets buzz the protesters. They will become scared and leave the square.”

Interior Minister: Yes, Mr. President.

If you’re holding a hammer, sometimes everything looks like a nail. The protesters ignored the fighter jets, and Mubarak only highlighted his inability to control the situation.

As I observed in my last post on one-step thinking, you don’t have to be an autocrat to engage in illogical thinking. You can do it right in your own office! People working in high technology companies often have an emotional desire to believe certain things. Examples include “our startup will close a new round of financing and not run out of money” or “engineering can do 90 days of development work in 30″ or “this product launch will be successful.” When objective data contradicts what people want to believe, people often respond by retreating into psychological denial and denying the data in order to preserve their opinions instead of correcting their opinions to match the data.

Denial is incredibly dangerous because it enables a person to postpone facing reality and therefore delays the process of either identifying a different, feasible solution or recognizing that a company is currently on a fundamentally bad course and must change course. If you’re driving a car towards the edge of the Grand Canyon but are acknowledging the data provided by your eyes, you’ll realize you must stop or turn. But if you deny the data your eyes are providing, you can drive straight over the edge of the cliff to your doom.

Because denial and wishful thinking enable a company, project, or product team to self-destruct, it’s critical that CEOs, project managers, and product managers relentlessly discipline themselves and everyone else in the company to be rational at all times. Everyone in a company should continuously be checking their own thinking to detect and correct illogical thinking. A company whose employees are honest with themselves, with each other, and with their customers will respond to unpleasant realities more quickly and have a much better chance of success. How well are you and your company doing on this score today?

UPDATE: Before I clicked save, the Egyptian military confirmed on state TV that it won’t use violence against the people. Great news!

Disclaimer: In case it’s not obvious, I don’t actually have any sources at all in Mubarak’s inner circle. My sources in his inner circle all resigned last week. Yes, I’m kidding about that too …